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For the returning ascetic, the man who woke up from the coma, the newcomer, who decided now, all the time, to learn about the markets: if you didn’t know, it was not a good year for crypto.
Earth, Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Celsius, and Voyager collapse; The market capitalization of the sector fell; And NFT trading volume has been reduced to almost nothing. But in the middle of a year of bad weeks, this was the worst.
This is not strictly true by the numbers. In the past seven days, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is down 20%, still down from a 26% drop in mid-May.
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But in the last seven days something deep broke. On Tuesday morning, cryptocurrency exchange FTX announced that it had agreed to be bought by rival Binance. The news comes after days of feuding between CEOs Sam Bankman-Fried and Changpeng Zhao (CZ), with Binance’s CEO questioning the financial stability of his rival’s empire. By agreeing to the sale, Bankmann-Fried confirmed that CZ was right, at least in broad terms. When customers left the exchange, FTX was left with a hole it couldn’t fill, as much as $10 billion for some accounts.
The tone changed Thursday morning. Binance pulled out of the deal after taking a closer look at FTX’s finances and finding them worse than they imagined. The next day, Bankman-Fried announced that he was stepping down as CEO and that FTX and related entities were filing for bankruptcy. Since then, rumors have swirled about a $515 million “hack” of FTX funds, which may have been an inside job.
It’s too early to know what happened. Bombs seem to be dropping every day, and cryptocurrencies have a rare knack for creating a solid foothold. Whatever actual events unfold do not matter from a higher level. The implosion of FTX represents a melting pot moment. This is a crisis of confidence for the industry and should force us to aggressively update our mental models. It’s an opportunity to think about what crypto is, what it should be, and the great distance between here and there. If it’s not already obvious, I say these things to myself as much or more than to the wider field. Personally, this week caused a complete reset of how I think about crypto and the reason I remain positive about it (maybe).
What seems indisputable is this: a company considered to be one of the most influential, innovative and regularly active cryptocurrencies.
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The sister organization appears to be lending $10 billion in customer funds to bail out Alameda. It was a company that raised billions in funding from notable investors like Sequoia Capital, bought the naming rights to an NBA stadium, scooped up bad lenders like Voyager, ran a very profitable cryptocurrency exchange, and turned Tom Brady into an iconic advertising icon. Larry David was a Super Bowl success and attracted coverage from almost every media outlet on the planet, including this one.
Those who have followed The for a while will know that I consider FTX to be one of the most remarkable startups on the planet. Its growth and efficiency have been impressive: what took rivals years and thousands of employees to achieve, FTX did in 18 months with an almost hilarious team. When I first wrote about them, they had a revenue rate of $803 million and only six developers. In Sam Bankman-Fried, they have a gigabrained CEO with the right mix of ruthless pragmatism and solid moral fiber. A consummate businessman who combined exceptional systems thinking and outsider wit to turn cryptocurrencies around and recognize the importance of building a brand not only in the US, but also in the corridors of DC. With a considerable distance.
That’s not to say he didn’t see risks in the way Bankmann-Fried ran his empire. In my first article about the company, I wrote:
Since FTX’s inception, [SBF] has been willing to do controversial work to achieve its goals. In preparation for this piece, I spoke with someone familiar with the early days of Almeida and FTX. He highlighted the apparent conflict of interest created by the relationship between the two institutions. Will the FTX exchange not support the market maker set by your CEO? How can other marketers be sure they are getting a fair beating? The truth is, they didn’t. The person I spoke with explained how important Alameda was to FTX early on, providing liquidity for the new market. What is perhaps less clear is whether Almeida received anything in return. The source noted that FTX has attracted strong traffic in part because it deals with such tight markets. It seemed impossible to this person that a market maker could make money with such spreads, suggesting that one of two things was happening: either Almeida was playing on a level playing field with everyone else, or he was losing money (essentially subsidizing FTX) , or the company gained some kind of advantage. This can be a first look at the trading volume of the exchange, for example. None of this is illegal, but it is thorny territory. So far, it has proven to be worth the risk. SBF has taken both organizations to new heights. As time goes on, Almeida and FTX appear to be increasingly independent, perhaps reducing potential conflicts of interest. But the willingness to operate on the edge of acceptability tells us something about the position of the SBF and its desire to win, however messy.
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Data from the time indicated that Alameda and FTX were, in fact, increasingly independent. Numbers provided by the company showed that FTX volume from Alameda declined from +50% in May 2019 to around 5% in mid-2021. There was no indication that Almeida had financial concerns. In fact, they may not have been at the time: they were point assessments. With the benefit of hindsight, we can look back and say that we were clear about the potential for conflict, the potential for self-discipline, and the sometimes chaotic methods of Bankman-Fried. Ultimately, the available data appeared to decrease rather than increase risk. Now we know it was far from the real story.
Of course, every startup dances with risk. Something I don’t think VCs like to talk about is that building a great company is frowned upon. This is especially true when a company must deal with regulators or face parties with conflicting interests.
Uber “snapped its way” through regulators while brutalizing a market, Airbnb upset city governments by flooding metropolitan markets with tourists, Facebook withdrew its raison d’être from Winklevy, and Microsoft’s The MS-DOS operating system may (or may not) have . it was partially ported from a competitor. French writer Honore de Balzac is believed to have said, “Behind every great fortune is a great crime.” It’s not as obvious in entrepreneurship, but it’s not entirely wrong. It might be fair to say that behind every great company is a litany of transgressions and intrusions, dissolvable sins.
If you believe that entrepreneurship is an essential driver of human progress (I do), then a certain degree is, within reason, desirable. (An unsatisfactory debate we could have: what does “within reason” mean?)
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In college, I remember asking a political science professor if he had ever thought about running for office. After all, he was young, smart, moral, and absurdly charismatic. They told me they would never do it because politics doesn’t allow purists. For a while, this seemed like a morally brave, very sensible path. In recent years, I have come to question this. While a purist may thrive in art or academia (I don’t know if this is fiction), it is impossible for anyone entering the realm of business or politics. do something
All of this is to say that I thought FTX would perform similarly to many exceptional organizations. Bankman-Fried took them to the edge when needed, but was sharp enough to keep them right of the meridian. While there may be some sane shortcuts here and there, FTX was too smart to invest client funds, dive into high-risk loans, or structure itself the way Alameda did.
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