Real Money India – A gas station attendant counts Indian currency notes to hand over to a customer after filling up with fuel, in Ahmedabad, India, Thursday, Aug. 30, 2018. The Reserve Bank of India announced on Wednesday that 99.3 percent of the $217 billion. The withdrawal of notes since the spread in 2016 has led to a surprise effort to rid the economy of illegal cash deposits back into the economy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s monetary policy, designed to wipe out the value of billions of dollars in tax-free cash stocks, led to an economic slowdown and months of financial chaos for tens of thousands of people. (AP Photo/Ajit Solanki) 1 of 7 A gas station attendant counts Indian currency notes to change Indian currency notes after refueling a customer, in Ahmedabad, India, Thursday, Aug. 30, 2018. The Reserve Bank of India reported on Wednesday that 99.3 percent of the 217 billion dollar notes withdrawn from circulation as a result of a 2016 effort to eliminate illegal cash deposits have returned to the economy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s monetary policy, designed to wipe out the value of billions of dollars in tax-free cash stocks, led to an economic slowdown and months of financial chaos for tens of thousands of people. (AP Photo/Ajith Solanki)
NEW YORK (AP) — Almost all of the money that reentered the financial system in 2016 in a surprise effort to flush out illegally hoarded money, the Reserve Bank of India said, did little to slow the disruptive move underground. Economy.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s monetary policy, designed to wipe out billions of dollars worth of anonymous currency stocks, led to an economic slowdown and months of financial chaos for ordinary, cash-strapped Indians.
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In a November 2016 televised speech, Modi announced that the 500-rupee and 1,000-rupee notes, then worth about $7.50 and $15, would be withdrawn from circulation immediately. The government said the banned notes could be deposited into bank accounts but would investigate deposits above 250,000 rupees, or about $3,700. Finally the government issued new 500 and 2000 rupee notes.
In theory, the decree would mean that corrupt politicians and businessmen would suddenly have billions of dollars sitting in worthless currency known as “black money”.
“A few are spreading corruption for their own benefit,” Modi said in a statement on the surprise night of the order. “There’s a time in society when you realize you’ve got to make some changes, and this is our time.”
But India’s poor and middle class, who have always depended on cash, and millions of small businessmen — the rich — found ways around the currency shift. In the months following the order, traders reported that large amounts of the banned currency could still be sold on the black market, although middlemen charged higher fees.
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The RBI said in its statement on Wednesday that 99.3 percent of the 217 billion dollar notes issued from circulation have been returned. Some officials initially predicted that number could be as low as 60 percent.
“Frankly, I think demonetisation was a mistake,” said Gurcharan Das, author and former chairman of Procter & Gamble India. While this will expand the country’s tax base, it is a boon for the large, cash-based informal economy, he said.
“It cannot be changed overnight in a poor and uneducated country. So, for me, it is not only an economic failure but also a moral failure,” Das said. A customer hands Indian currency notes to an attendant at a gas station in Mumbai, India on August 13, 2018. /Francis Mascarenhas / File photo
Mumbai, Nov. 29 () – Month-end exits and speculation of a stronger Indian rupee contributed to increased demand for the cash dollar this week, traders said on Tuesday.
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This demand pushed the USD/INR currency exchange rate to the all-time low indicated by the rupee and dollar rates.
For example, the USD/INR exchange rate fell to 0.36 paisa on Monday, translating to a 5.40% overnight rupee exchange rate. It has a call rate of around 6%. On Tuesday, the exchange rate was 0.42 paisa.
A currency trader at a state-owned bank said the decline in the greenback this week may be temporary and will improve later this month.
Month-end dollar demand may fluctuate due to USD/INR inversions and corporate dollar outflows.
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The USD/INR spot is down at 81.7075, broadly lower than its Asian counterparts. The Chinese yuan and Korean won rose more than 1%.
Another trader said that betting on the appreciation of the rupee against the dollar would lead to a fall in the exchange rate.
The rupee has improved on expectations that the dollar index is likely to rise and US manufacturing has picked up. Additionally, there has been a turnaround in foreign capital inflows, which has boosted India’s balance sheet to its maximum.
Traders also noted that the Reserve Bank of India may not need to intervene to protect the rupee as it did last month.
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A fall in currency exchange rates led to a fall in advance premiums. The 1-year USD/INR yield fell to levels seen in more than a decade last Monday. India’s macro declines in liquidity rose to 14.5% of GDP in FY21 from 10.7% of GDP in FY18.
Cash in circulation (CIC) in the Indian economy has increased significantly since demonetisation. CIC increased from 10.7% of GDP in FY18 to 14.5% in FY21. Five years after demonetisation, most fintech companies remain loss-making and still have to spend millions to acquire customers and merchants. But cash – anonymous, convenient and useful – is still preferred by the average Indian.
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A SIDBI survey on the impact of Covid on MSMEs revealed that 67% of the companies surveyed were “temporarily closed for up to 3 months”, the government said in the Lok Sabha.
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SBI Chairman Dinesh Kara said all other financial indicators showed encouraging trends, giving confidence that fiscal policy is sufficiently interventionist to accommodate future shocks if needed.
In FY23, the central government’s interest income and dividend and profit are both expected to decline by 16% and 29% respectively.
The GST revenue for the current financial year up to January 2023 is 24% higher than the GST revenue for the same period last year. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets in cities across India to protest against the “you-can-be” economic policy. Asked before: demonetization.
Three weeks ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stunned his country by announcing the banning of $7 and $15 – 500 and 1,000 rupee notes respectively – in a bid to tackle corruption and terrorism.
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He speculated that forcing people to convert the country’s huge currency bills into new banknotes would allow the government to curb “black money” — untaxed but, under the law, unaccounted for cash. He also hinted at cracking down on domestic terrorism financing by confiscating fake notes and devaluing the legitimate currency that keeps them in the shadows.
Banning widely used currency notes would have a major impact on any economy, but in India it is causing a policy shift. Modi’s sudden ban immediately made 86 percent of all currency in circulation in India no longer considered legal tender, meaning businesses could refuse to accept those bills as a form of payment. India’s economy runs on cash only: it is estimated that 90 to 98 percent of India’s total transactions, measured by volume, are cash-based.
Modi’s demonetisation move has created chaos across the country. People want new currency notes, but their current supply does not meet the demand. Due to this, people are suffering due to lack of cash in long queues outside ATMs and banks. People who depend on daily cash income will not be able to buy food.
A temporary shortage of currency notes has other far-reaching consequences. Farmers were not able to purchase the seeds they needed in full for the next planting attempt. Home sales, which often require large cash investments, have been sluggish. It’s reshaping cultural life: weddings costing millions of rupees are taking a serious toll.
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“Many marriages are delayed and those who arrange them borrow money from relatives and friends,” says Niranjan Sahu, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, a think tank in New Delhi.
While Modi’s plan to eradicate black money makes sense in theory, it has not worked well in practice. It hits individual Indians hard, and the country itself could pay a heavy price: Many economists expect growth in India’s emerging economy to slow significantly in the last quarter of 2016.
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